As a returning visa: details about why and how long delayed visa-free ...
10.06.2016
As a returning visa: details about why and how long delayed visa-free regime
June 10 at a planned meeting in Luxembourg, the EU Council at the Head of Ukrainian Interior Ministry to discuss visa-free regime, but ... has not taken any decision. The issue simply is not put to the vote.
As a result, in summer 2016 the EU will not introduce a visa regime for citizens of Ukraine. The most optimistic option is now autumn.
And, despite the statements of European officials, it is - not a "technical delay" and political.
And here is that the EU currently does not told us "no." The political decision on visa-free travel for Ukraine, no one questions the.
This option is now not even discussed.
But this does not mean that we can rest easy.
Three months ago, few imagined the current problems - apparently, we are at the finish line and in August we can forget about the visa. But the "new circumstances" ...
Just now, unfortunately, there are scenarios in which our prospects could be even worse. And perhaps the biggest danger in these scenarios comes from ... Ukraine itself.
Therefore, details on today's "schedules", the reasons and key threat - in "European truth."
What happened and who is to blame?
Officials EU official comments are unlikely to recognize that visa postponed. In Brussels, the traditional explanation - they say, we do not call date; but if so, it can not be postponed.
But in conversations, "beyond the recorder" all recognize: yes, the situation is not easy.
These difficulties are two key ingredients - Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian. Second - powerful.
The fate of Ukraine has again become hostage to processes that are directly related to it are not.
(Very clear analogy with the Dutch referendum, where a number of votes "against Ukraine" were in fact the Dutch vote, opposed the EU).
This time we were the object of the game between the EU and Turkey.
In spring 2016 Brussels and Ankara started an active dialogue on visa requirements for Turks. It had become a political "price to pay" for agreeing to stop the flow of Turkey into the EU of Syrian refugees, as well as - to take back those last summer has reached Europe via Turkish territory.
This task requires very heart of the European Union.
But Turkey - and most "risky" country, which, moreover, did not perform a "visa-free plan", as was Ukraine or Moldova. So Europe needs additional protections that citizens of Turkey (say, the representatives of sexual minorities, or the Syrians with Turkish passport) will not massively ask for asylum in the EU.
By itself the idea of ??a mechanism that will allow Brussels to quickly stop a visa if necessary. And just in case it decided to extend the action to all countries, not just in Turkey
And while this mechanism is not established, the EU suspended the visa process. Not only for Turkey but also for Ukraine, Georgia, Kosovo.
"Much of this - the question of domestic policy. We have to show the voters of his country, we put protections against possible new migration crisis. Including from Ukraine, although you - not the greatest source of danger," - said YevroPravdi a European diplomats, who asked to remain anonymous.
So that we are not involved in the delay?
Do not believe that Ukraine has not made mistakes? And rightly doing.
Of course, the "Turkish mechanism" Kyiv is not involved.
According to our sources in Brussels, as well as local media, the chief lobbyist of this idea are representatives of France (on which her separate "thank you") and, to a lesser extent - officials from Germany, Belgium and more recently, Italy.
No fault of Kyiv that this idea was on the agenda of the EU, and when all this happened, our diplomats actively worked over so that Ukraine is not tied to the problem.
But migration inhibition motif visa - only one of the two. The second, "reformist" Ukraine directly involved.
Although the Commission and stated that Kyiv is fully completed "visa-free plan" (VLAP), in the capitals of EU members are well aware that it - not quite true.
National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption has not beefed up (election of the fifth member of the Nazca stuck because the presidential election commission member, Alexander Danyluk, went to the government, and when Poroshenko appointed a replacement - the Commission went Sushchenko BP representative); electronic declaration of wealth of the highest officials have not yet earned, a business group promoting the idea in parliament to change the law on spetskonfiskatsiyi ...
Member states resent the fact that Ukraine has fulfilled part of the anti-corruption VLAP place only on paper. And from that - the idea to create a post-monitoring mechanism.
EU wants control over how Ukraine will complete anti-corruption reforms. Need lever: if Kyiv starts repeal reform, be deprived of "visa-free".
And just like the previous mechanism, some member states consider it necessary to slow down visa until clarity of postmonitorynhom. The list of countries that promote this idea - the same, but there is a key role, according to sources, plays Permanent Mission of Germany to Brussels.
German officials most indignant "simulated fight corruption in Ukraine." And diplomats often think of the Prosecutor General Viktor Shokina which Poroshenko by hook and by crook tried to keep the office.
History Shokina who personally tried to stop the execution VLAP, became a symbol of resistance to Western reforms by team president. And there remember well that the last president defended the Attorney General, which discredited not only the story, but failed reform of the prosecution. Forget about it will be very difficult.
Instead, the "European truth" is also different, fresher claim to Poroshenko.
If visa-free delayed, how long?
This is a difficult question. There are several scenarios which are well known MFA and AP. None of them gives reason to hope that a visa will work in the summer.
But Poroshenko, still trying to create false expectations in society. "We are doing everything possible so that Parliament and the Council considered the matter until the summer, but it is possible that it could be in September," - he said a week ago at a press conference in Kiev.
This news has spread widely Ukrainian media, again creating expectations in society. Unfortunately, false expectations.
As of September is now the most optimistic option. Completion of the summer not even considered - now it can not be purely procedural. Much more likely that this refers to October or even November.
And while we support Poroshenko opinion that the visa-free in 2016 remains a realistic prospect.
This forecast is supported YevroPravdy sources in Brussels and member states. This scenario is currently a major - until early autumn the EU will approve the outlines mechanism for suspending visa-free, agree on the basic provisions postmonitorynhu, and after that - taken by Ukraine.
And, unfortunately, we can not say that this scenario - certainly.
There is a serious danger that towards approval "free visa" will be new obstacles.
First, Calendar consideration of visa suspension mechanism may change. In the EU there is still no agreement on its details, and who knows, perhaps the protracted search for a compromise.
By the way, striking that hinders Ukrainian visa-free Europe, without the legal requirements to do so. The procedure for the suspension of visa will be valid for all countries, no matter how long they have visa-free. If, for example, Ukraine abolished visa in September, and the new mechanism will be adopted in December, it also will work for our country.
And now the Ukrainian pro-European forces - from government to civil society - are trying to convey to European capitals that unnecessary delays are only for damage.
So, in all these legal debate is only about how long delayed our visa. The possibility that the EU refuses to cancel all visas are not currently under discussion. And Ukraine can make itself the issue on the agenda of the EU. And this possibility is not too improbable.
Do not be a visionary in order to provide: visa delay will lead to genuine outrage in parliament.
Populism in the Council as strong as ever, and calls for "revenge Europe" and lose a couple of the most painful reforms, it can find support.
Moreover, the parliament is already prepared for this soil. First of all - in the matter of anti-corruption.
At stake - the wealth of influential politicians, and for some - even criminal liability, because to prove the legal origin of funds, many will not.
Therefore postponing visa may be driven (not the cause but just drive!) In order to Council reviewed the most "sensitive" law on spetskonfiskatsiyu or the return of illegally derived assets. A loss of confidence in the EU will give MPs vote for the decision to review the reforms.
Another threat - the protection of minorities. As you know, one of the "visa-free laws" were amendments to the Labour Code prohibiting employment discrimination, including on grounds of sexual orientation.
Today the Council is - a new labor code. Some believe that it will be duplicated this rule if the deputies will lose faith in quick abolition of visas? The question is rhetorical.
Now imagine what will be the reaction of Brussels if the Verkhovna Rada will cancel some of the key "visa-free rules" still before the EU adopt a final decision on the "visa-free"? Provide a snap. Ukraine accused of violating the agreements, visa approval will stop and it will go back skeptics reason to further conflict ...
Sign spiral in conflict with the EU - a snap. Quit it - is extremely difficult.
This is not a complete list of negative scenarios that could hit the Ukraine-EU relations and on visa-free regime.
Much depends on the outcome of the British referendum (if Britain decides to leave the EU, Europe will soon frankly not up to the Ukraine). "Autumn aggravation" of the crisis in the Verkhovna Rada, which is quite real, not assist us in Brussels.
Finally, do not forget about the Russian factor - even if it is not fixed, but the Kremlin is not exactly sitting idly waiting Ukrainian visa.
So every month delays for visa-free Ukraine is a way to divide. And we hope that Berlin, Paris and Rome is finally understood.
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